Election scorecard.

# Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 12 2004 10:15 AM

# Election Scorecard

## Where the presidential race stands today.

 If the Election Were Held Today Winner Loser

178 solid, 100 close

178 solid, 82 close

Analysis Oct. 12: Minnesota shifts to Kerry; New Mexico shifts to Bush. Two of three national polls begun Oct. 8 or later show Kerry leading within the margin, but the average still tilts toward Bush. Bush's job approval is 50 or below in the four polls begun Oct. 4 or later. In the
two post-debate surveys that asked whether he deserves re-election, the percentage saying no is 50 or above. Wrong track is above 50 and ahead of right direction by double digits in nearly all October polls.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

 Trial Heat Trend Bush Kerry Nader Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Bush Kerry Since 44 47 2 2.9 10/8-10 Likely Reuters/Zogby -1 +1 10/7-9 48 49 1 4 10/9-10 Likely CNN/USA -1 0 10/1-3 51 45 1 3 10/8-10 Likely ABC/WP 0 -1 10/7-9 46 45 4 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -1 +4 9/21-23 46 50 2 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -6 +5 9/20-22 49 46 1 3 10/4-5 Likely Marist -1 +2 9/20-22 51 45 2 3.3 10/1-5 Likely ICR 0 +3 9/24-28 48 49 1 3.1 10/3-5 Likely Democracy Corps -1 +3 9/26-28 46 46 2 3.5 10/2-4 Likely ARG -1 -1 8/30-9/1 47 45 1 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox +1 +3 9/21-22 47 47 1 4 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -1 +6 9/20-22 49 44 2 4 10/1-3 Likely Pew +2 -2 9/11-14 45 47 2 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -4 +4 9/9-10 51 44 1 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +1 -1 9/22-23 51 45 2 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 45 45 2 4 9/22-27 Likely IBD/TIPP 0 +3 9/14-18 48 40 2 3.5 9/22-26 Registered Pew +3 -2 9/17-21 48 42 5 4 9/21-23 Likely Time -4 +2 9/7-9 50 46 1 4 9/17-19 Likely NBC/WSJ N/A N/A 8/23-25 47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris 0 +1 8/10-15 46 46 3 3.5 9/7-12 Likely IBD/TIPP N/A N/A 51 46 1 3.5 9/7-9 Likely AP N/A N/A

 Bush Job Approval Trend Approve Disapprove Marginof Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Approve Disapprove Since 47 49 4 10/9-10 Likely CNN/USA -3 +1 10/1-3 50 46 3 10/7-9 Likely Time -3 +3 9/21-23 46 53 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -8 +7 9/20-22 49 48 3 10/4-5 Registered Marist 0 -1 9/20-22 53 43 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox +3 -2 9/21-22 47 43 4 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -1 -1 9/20-22 53 45 3 10/1-3 Likely ABC/WP +3 +1 9/23-26 49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely Zogby +2 -5 9/17-19 53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground 0 -2 9/23 50 45 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox +1 +1 9/7-8 49 47 3.1 9/19-21 Likely Democracy Corps -1 -1 9/12-14 47 48 3 9/17-19 Registered NBC/WSJ 0 0 8/23-25 53 45 3.1 9/12-15 Likely Battleground +2 -1 8/15-17 50 42 3 9/12-16 Registered CBS/NYT 0 +1 9/6-8

 Re-Elect Trend Yes No Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Yes No Since 45 51 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -2 +2 9/21-23 44 50 2.9 10/4-6 Likely Zogby -2 +1 10/1-3 48 46 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -2 0 9/9-10 50 47 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time -5 +4 9/7-9 45 51 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris N/A N/A

 Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend Right Wrong Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Right Wrong Since 40 56 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -5 +4 9/20-22 41 53 3 10/4-5 Registered Marist +3 0 9/20-22 42 53 3.1 10/3-5 Likely Democracy Corps +2 0 9/26-28 40 51 4 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -1 -3 9/20-22 48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely Zogby +5 -3 9/17-19 41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +2 -3 9/23 42 53 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time -3 +2 9/7-9 41 53 3.1 9/12-15 Likely Battleground +1 -1 8/15-17 46 49 3 9/7-9 Registered Time +1 -1 8/31-Sept. 2 44 52 3 9/6-8 Registered CBS +5 -3 7/30-Aug. 1

 Favorable/Unfavorable Rating Bush Trend Kerry Trend Bush Kerry Marginof Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Since 51/46 52/44 4 10/9-10 Likely CNN/USA -2 +1 0 +1 10/1-3 53/43 47/46 3 10/8-10 Likely ABC/WP 0 +1 +1 +4 10/2-4 48/42 50/34 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -6 +4 +7 -8 9/7-9 52/43 46/44 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox 0 0 -1 0 9/21-22 44/44 40/41 3 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -2 +6 +8 -3 9/20-22 57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered Pew +7 -6 -1 +2 9/11-14 49/46 52/40 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -3 +2 +4 -4 9/9-10 56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +1 0 -2 +2 9/23 54/46 48/50 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 50/48 51/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered Marist -1 +1 -5 +8 7/30-8/2 52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox +1 0 -1 0 9/7-8 55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely Gallup N/A N/A N/A N/A 54/44 49/47 3.1 9/12-15 Likely Battleground +3 -3 -5 +5 8/15-17 49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew -6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10 54/38 43/42 3 9/7-9 Registered Time +9 -7 -10 +13 8/3-5 47/39 32/41 3 9/6-8 Registered CBS +4 -5 -6 +7 7/30-8/1

 Electoral Vote State Bush Kerry Nader Margin Sample Dates Sponsor/Pollster Bush Solid Bush Close Kerry Close Kerry Solid AL 62 34 N/A 4 Likely 10/1-3 Survey USA 9 AK 57 30 5 4 Likely 9/9-11 American Research Group 3 AZ 55 41 N/A 4.1 Likely 10/5-7 Survey USA 10 AR 52 43 1 4.5 Likely 10/4-6 Opinion Research 6 CA 40 49 N/A 4.3 Likely 9/30-10/3 Field 55 CO 50 41 N/A 4 Likely 10/4-6 Mason-Dixon 9 CT 39 54 1 4 Likely 9/12-14 American Research Group 7 DE 38 45 2 3.9 Likely 9/22-25 WHYY-TV 3 DC 11 78 6 4 Likely 9/11-13 American Research Group 3 FL 48 44 N/A 4 Registered 10/4-5 Mason-Dixon 27 GA 58 39 N/A 4.1 Likely 10/5-7 Survey USA 15 HI 41 51 4 4 Likely 9/7-11 American Research Group 4 ID 59 30 3 4 Likely 9/8-10 American Research Group 4 IL 39 55 N/A 3.9 Likely 10/4-6 Survey USA 21 IN 58 39 N/A 4.1 Likely 10/3-5 Survey USA 11 IA 47 48 N/A 3.9 Likely 10/4-6 Survey USA 7 KS 57 35 2 4 Likely 9/15-18 American Research Group 6 KY 57 38 3 3.9 Likely 10/4-6 Survey USA 8 LA 50 42 1 4 Likely 9/17-21 American Research Group 9 ME 47 49 N/A 3.9 Likely 10/3-5 Survey USA 4 MD 41 56 2 4.1 Likely 10/5-7 Survey USA 10 MA 36 51 2 3.5 Registered 9/25-10/5 Merrimack 12 MI 42 52 N/A 3.9 Likely 10/4-6 Survey USA 17 MN 46 46 N/A 4.5 Likely 9/18-24 Rasmussen 10 MS 51 42 1 4 Likely 9/14-17 American Research Group 6 MO 49 47 N/A 3.8 Likely 10/2-4 Survey USA 11 MT 53 33 N/A 4 Registered 5/24-26 Mason-Dixon 3 NE 61 30 2 4 Likely 9/9-12 American Research Group 5 NV 50 46 N/A 4 Likely 10/1-3 Survey USA 5 NH 47 47 1 4 Likely 10/3-5 American Research Group 4 NJ 39 47 2 4.5 Likely 10/1-6 Farleigh Dickerson U 15 NM 50 47 2 4 Likely 10/3-6 CNN/USA 5 NY 40 52 1 4 Likely 9/14-16 American Research Group 31 NC 52 45 N/A 4 Likely 10/2-4 Survey USA 15 ND 62 33 1 4 Likely 9/9-12 American Research Group 3 OH 47 48 1 4 Likely 10/4-6 American Research Group 20 OK 63 33 N/A 3.9 Likely 10/4-6 Survey USA 7 OR 45 47 N/A 4 Registered 9/24-27 KATU-TV 7 PA 46 48 1 4 Likely 10/4-6 American Research Group 21 RI 30 58 4 4 Likely 9/11-13 American Research Group 4 SC 54 42 N/A 4 Registered 9/7-9 Public Opinion Strategies 8 SD 58 39 N/A 4.4 Registered 8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies 3 TN 58 39 N/A 4 Likely 10/3-5 Survey USA 11 TX 57 34 N/A 3 Registered 8/9-26 Scripps Howard 34 UT 64 27 4 4 Likely 9/10-13 American Research Group 5 VT 40 50 4 4 Likely 9/9-12 American Research Group 3 VA 49 43 N/A 4 Likely 9/12-14 American Research Group 13 WA 43 54 N/A 4 Likely 10/2-4 Survey USA 11 WV 51 45 N/A 5 Likely 9/17-20 Gallup 5 WI 49 46 2 4 Likely 10/3-5 CNN/USA 10 WY 65 29 2 4 Likely 9/9-11 American Research Group 3