Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 1 2004 11:40 AM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

79_happybush
86_sadkerry

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

352 Electoral Votes
215 solid, 137 close

186 Electoral Votes
153 solid, 33 close

1_123125_2106526_electoralkey

Analysis Sept. 30: Terrific news for Bush. His average lead in national polls continues to rise. Surveys begun within the last week show margins of 6, 6, 8, and 10, for an average of 7.5. Gallup, which had him up 3 in Florida, now gives him a lead of 9 there, outside the margin of error. Gallup also puts him up 3 points in Pennsylvania; three other recent polls had Kerry leading narrowly there. Kerry's lead in New Jersey is down to 1 point. Silver lining for Kerry: He's down just 2 in Ohio, better than the 4-point deficit in the previous sampling by a different pollster.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

1_123125_2106526_chartexample

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
45 47 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4  9/9-10
51 45 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
51 41 3.6 9/24-28 Likely  ICR -3  9/8-12
4545249/22-27Likely IBD/TIPP 0+3 9/14-18
48 403.5 9/22-26 Registered  Pew+3 -2  9/17-21 
51 45 3.5 9/23-26 Likely  ABC/WP-1 +2  9/6-8
52 44 39/24-26 Likely  CNN/USA-3 +29/13-15 
50 45 03.1 9/22-23 Likely  Battleground+1  9/12-15
48 42 9/21-23 Likely  Time-4 +2  9/7-9 
50 44 9/20-22 Likely  Marist  +3 -3  7/30-8/2 
4643 2 3.1 9/17-19 Likely Zogby0 +19/8-9
49 41 N/A 3 9/20-22 Registered CBS/NYT-1-1 9/12-16
5245 1 3.5 9/20-22 Likely AP0 +2 9/7-9
46 42 1 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox -1 -1 9/7-8
474553.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps00 9/12-14
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
5042339/12-16Registered CBS/NYT+1+1 9/6-8
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 
5242349/7-9Likely Time00 8/31-9/2
514613.59/7-9Likely APN/AN/A   
4743339/7-8Likely Fox+4-1 8/24-25

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
523539/23-26Registered ABC/WP0-3 9/6-8  
54 44 9/24-26 Likely  CNN/USA +2 -1 9/13-15 
53 45 3.1 9/23 Likely  Battleground+1  9/22
53 43 9/21-23 Likely  Time-3 +2 9/7-9 
49 49 3/5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist+2  7/30-8-2
4752 3.1 9/17-19 Likely  Zogby0-1 9/8-9
4844 9/20-22 Registered  CBS/NYT-2 +2  9/12-16
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
49473.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1-1 9/12-14
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
53453.19/12-15Likely Battleground+2-1 8/15-17
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 
494439/7-8Likely Fox-2+1 8/24-25
524539/6-8Registered ABC/WP0-2 8/26-29
504339/6-8Registered CBS+4-2 7/30-
8/1
524649/3-5Registered CNN/USA+3-1 8/23-25

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
48 46 9/30-10/2 Registered  Newsweek -2  9/9-10 
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
47 50 3.1 9/17-19 Likely  Zogby+1 +1 9/8-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 
524539/7-9Registered Time+3-3 8/31-
9/2

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
39 53 3.1 9/23 Likely  Battleground+1 9/22 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9
38 53 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-3 +5  7/30-8/2
43523.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1+1 9/12-14
4153 3.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+1-1 8/15-17
4151 39/12-16Registered CBS/NY Times-3 +1 9/6-8
464939/7-9Registered Time+1-1 8/31-Sept. 2
445239/6-8Registered CBS+5-3 7/30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
55/42 50/46 3.1 9/23 Likely  Battleground-1 +1 -1  
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
46/3832/44 3 9/20-22 Registered CBS/NYT-1 0 +1 +2 9/12-16
52/43 48/34 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
47/38 31/42 39/12-16Registered CBS/NYT  0-1-1 -1 9/6-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
54/4449/473.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+3-3-5+5 8/15-17
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10
54/3843/4239/7-9Registered Time+9-7-10+13 8/3-5
51/4346/4439/7-8Likely Fox+1-1-2+5 8/24-25
51/3936/4249/6-8Registered ABC/WP+1-1-7+2 8/26-29
47/3932/4139/6-8Registered CBS+4-5-6+7 7/30-8/1
55/4453/4349/3-5Registered CNN/USA+10+1+38/23-25

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 Electoral Vote
StateBushKerryNaderMarginSampleDatesSponsor/
Pollster
Bush
Solid
Bush
Close
Kerry
Close
Kerry
Solid
AL

54

4014Likely9/13-16 American Research Group9   
AK57305 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3   
AZ4938N/A4.1Registered9/23-26 Arizona State10   

AR

53

44

N/A

4.2

Likely

9/27-29

Survey USA

  CA3951N/A3Likely9/12-19 Public Policy Institute  55 CO5244N/A 4Likely9/21-23 Survey USA9     CT395414Likely9/12-14 American Research Group    7 DE415024Likely9/13-15 American Research Group   3 DC11 78 6 4 Likely 9/11-13 American Research Group    3 FL524314Likely9/24-27 CNN/USA27  GA534204Likely9/11-13 American Research Group15    HI415144Likely9/7-11 American Research Group   4 ID59 30 3 4 Likely 9/8-10 American Research Group4    IL4049N/A4Likely9/17-20 Tribune/WGN    21 IN5438N/A4Likely9/7-9 Research 200011    IA48451 3Likely9/21-22 Fox News 7   KS573524 Likely9/15-18 American Research Group6    KY533833.8Likely9/10-15 Bluegrass Poll8    LA504214Likely9/17-21 American Research Group9    ME4245N/A4Likely9/10-23 Critical Insights  4 MD435224Likely9/7-9 American Research Group   10 MA2764 4Likely9/10-13 American Research Group   12 MI 50 48 N/A 3.5 Likely 9/22-28 Detroit Free Press   17   MN4646N/A4.5Likely9/18-24 Rasmussen 10   MS514214Likely9/14-17 American Research Group6    MO5044N/A4Likely9/16-19 American Research Group 11   MT5333N/A4Registered5/24-26 Mason-Dixon3    NE613024Likely9/9-12 American Research Group5    NV474224Likely9/20-28 Las Vegas Sun 5   NH464624Likely9/20-23 Research 20004  NJ444524.5Likely9/23-28 Farleigh Dickinson University  15 NM474324Likely9/15-16 Mason Dixon 5   NY405214Likely9/14-16 American Research Group   31 NC5044N/A4Likely9/20-22 Research 2000 15   ND62 33 1 4 Likely 7-10 3   OH494714Likely9/25-28 CNN/USA 20 OK6430N/A5Registered9/1-2 Westhill Partners7  OR4547N/A4Registered9/24-27 KATU-TV   7  PA494614Likely9/25-28 CNN/USA  21 RI305844Likely9/11-13 American Research Group    4 SC5442N/A4Registered9/7-9 Public Opinion Strategies8    SD5839N/A4.4Registered8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies3    TN53371 4 Likely 9/11-14 Mason-Dixon11 TX5734N/A3Registered8/9-26 Scripps Howard34    UT642744Likely9/10-13 American Research Group5    VT405044Likely9/9-12 American Research Group   3 VA4943N/A 4 Likely 9/12-14 American Research Group 13    WA4651N/A4Likely9/19-21 Survey USA  11 WV5145N/A5Likely9/17-20 Gallup 5   WI523844Likely9/16-21 University of Wisconsin10 WY65 29 2 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3   

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