If the Election Were Held Today | |||
Winner | Loser | ||
215 solid, 137 close
153 solid, 33 close
Analysis Sept. 30: Terrific news for Bush. His average lead in national polls continues to rise. Surveys begun within the last week show margins of 6, 6, 8, and 10, for an average of 7.5. Gallup, which had him up 3 in Florida, now gives him a lead of 9 there, outside the margin of error. Gallup also puts him up 3 points in Pennsylvania; three other recent polls had Kerry leading narrowly there. Kerry’s lead in New Jersey is down to 1 point. Silver lining for Kerry: He’s down just 2 in Ohio, better than the 4-point deficit in the previous sampling by a different pollster.
How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.
The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state’s electoral votes in his “solid” column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his “close” column.
In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state’s previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state’s electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:
Trial Heat | Trend | |||||||||
Bush | Kerry | Nader | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Bush | Kerry | Since | |
45 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 9/30-10/2 | Registered | Newsweek | -4 | +4 | 9/9-10 | |
51 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 9/25-28 | Likely | LA Times | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
51 | 41 | 2 | 3.6 | 9/24-28 | Likely | ICR | 0 | -3 | 9/8-12 | |
45 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 9/22-27 | Likely | IBD/TIPP | 0 | +3 | 9/14-18 | |
48 | 40 | 2 | 3.5 | 9/22-26 | Registered | Pew | +3 | -2 | 9/17-21 | |
51 | 45 | 2 | 3.5 | 9/23-26 | Likely | ABC/WP | -1 | +2 | 9/6-8 | |
52 | 44 | 3 | 3 | 9/24-26 | Likely | CNN/USA | -3 | +2 | 9/13-15 | |
50 | 45 | 0 | 3.1 | 9/22-23 | Likely | Battleground | +1 | 0 | 9/12-15 | |
48 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 9/21-23 | Likely | Time | -4 | +2 | 9/7-9 | |
50 | 44 | 2 | 4 | 9/20-22 | Likely | Marist | +3 | -3 | 7/30-8/2 | |
46 | 43 | 2 | 3.1 | 9/17-19 | Likely | Zogby | 0 | +1 | 9/8-9 | |
49 | 41 | N/A | 3 | 9/20-22 | Registered | CBS/NYT | -1 | -1 | 9/12-16 | |
52 | 45 | 1 | 3.5 | 9/20-22 | Likely | AP | 0 | +2 | 9/7-9 | |
46 | 42 | 1 | 3 | 9/21-22 | Likely | Fox | -1 | -1 | 9/7-8 | |
47 | 45 | 5 | 3.1 | 9/19-21 | Likely | Democracy Corps | 0 | 0 | 9/12-14 | |
50 | 46 | 1 | 4 | 9/17-19 | Likely | NBC/WSJ | N/A | N/A | 8/23-25 | |
50 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 9/12-16 | Registered | CBS/NYT | +1 | +1 | 9/6-8 | |
47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 9/9-13 | Likely | Harris | 0 | +1 | 8/10-15 | |
46 | 46 | 3 | 3.5 | 9/7-12 | Likely | IBD/TIPP | N/A | N/A | ||
52 | 42 | 3 | 4 | 9/7-9 | Likely | Time | 0 | 0 | 8/31-9/2 | |
51 | 46 | 1 | 3.5 | 9/7-9 | Likely | AP | N/A | N/A | ||
47 | 43 | 3 | 3 | 9/7-8 | Likely | Fox | +4 | -1 | 8/24-25 |
Bush Job Approval | Trend | ||||||||
Approve | Disapprove | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Approve | Disapprove | Since | |
52 | 35 | 3 | 9/23-26 | Registered | ABC/WP | 0 | -3 | 9/6-8 | |
54 | 44 | 3 | 9/24-26 | Likely | CNN/USA | +2 | -1 | 9/13-15 | |
53 | 45 | 3.1 | 9/23 | Likely | Battleground | 0 | +1 | 9/22 | |
53 | 43 | 4 | 9/21-23 | Likely | Time | -3 | +2 | 9/7-9 | |
49 | 49 | 3/5 | 9/20-22 | Registered | Marist | 0 | +2 | 7/30-8-2 | |
47 | 52 | 3.1 | 9/17-19 | Likely | Zogby | 0 | -1 | 9/8-9 | |
48 | 44 | 3 | 9/20-22 | Registered | CBS/NYT | -2 | +2 | 9/12-16 | |
50 | 45 | 3 | 9/21-22 | Likely | Fox | +1 | +1 | 9/7-8 | |
49 | 47 | 3.1 | 9/19-21 | Likely | Democracy Corps | -1 | -1 | 9/12-14 | |
47 | 48 | 3 | 9/17-19 | Registered | NBC/WSJ | 0 | 0 | 8/23-25 | |
53 | 45 | 3.1 | 9/12-15 | Likely | Battleground | +2 | -1 | 8/15-17 | |
50 | 42 | 3 | 9/12-16 | Registered | CBS/NYT | 0 | +1 | 9/6-8 | |
49 | 44 | 3 | 9/7-8 | Likely | Fox | -2 | +1 | 8/24-25 | |
52 | 45 | 3 | 9/6-8 | Registered | ABC/WP | 0 | -2 | 8/26-29 | |
50 | 43 | 3 | 9/6-8 | Registered | CBS | +4 | -2 | 7/30- 8/1 | |
52 | 46 | 4 | 9/3-5 | Registered | CNN/USA | +3 | -1 | 8/23-25 |
Re-Elect | Trend | ||||||||
Yes | No | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Yes | No | Since | |
48 | 46 | 4 | 9/30-10/2 | Registered | Newsweek | -2 | 0 | 9/9-10 | |
50 | 47 | 3 | 9/25-28 | Likely | LA Times | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
47 | 49 | 3.5 | 9/21-23 | Registered | Time | -5 | +4 | 9/7-9 | |
47 | 50 | 3.1 | 9/17-19 | Likely | Zogby | +1 | +1 | 9/8-9 | |
45 | 51 | 4 | 9/9-13 | Likely | Harris | N/A | N/A | ||
52 | 45 | 3 | 9/7-9 | Registered | Time | +3 | -3 | 8/31- 9/2 |
Right Direction/Wrong Track | Trend | ||||||||
Right | Wrong | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Right | Wrong | Since | |
42 | 53 | 3 | 9/25-28 | Likely | LA Times | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
39 | 53 | 3.1 | 9/23 | Likely | Battleground | 0 | +1 | 9/22 | |
43 | 51 | 3.5 | 9/21-23 | Registered | Time | -3 | +2 | 9/7-9 | |
38 | 53 | 3.5 | 9/20-22 | Registered | Marist | -3 | +5 | 7/30-8/2 | |
43 | 52 | 3.1 | 9/19-21 | Likely | Democracy Corps | -1 | +1 | 9/12-14 | |
41 | 53 | 3.1 | 9/12-15 | Likely | Battleground | +1 | -1 | 8/15-17 | |
41 | 51 | 3 | 9/12-16 | Registered | CBS/NY Times | -3 | +1 | 9/6-8 | |
46 | 49 | 3 | 9/7-9 | Registered | Time | +1 | -1 | 8/31-Sept. 2 | |
44 | 52 | 3 | 9/6-8 | Registered | CBS | +5 | -3 | 7/30-Aug. 1 |
Favorable/Unfavorable Rating | Bush Trend | Kerry Trend | ||||||||
Bush | Kerry | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Fav | Unfav | Fav | Unfav | Since |
49/46 | 52/40 | 4 | 9/30-10/2 | Registered | Newsweek | -3 | +2 | +4 | -4 | 9/9-10 |
54/46 | 48/50 | 3 | 9/25-28 | Likely | LA Times | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
55/42 | 50/46 | 3.1 | 9/23 | Likely | Battleground | 0 | -1 | +1 | -1 | |
50/48 | 51/46 | 3.5 | 9/20-22 | Registered | Marist | -1 | +1 | -5 | +8 | 7/30-8/2 |
46/38 | 32/44 | 3 | 9/20-22 | Registered | CBS/NYT | -1 | 0 | +1 | +2 | 9/12-16 |
52/43 | 48/34 | 3 | 9/21-22 | Likely | Fox | +1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9/7-8 |
47/38 | 31/42 | 3 | 9/12-16 | Registered | CBS/NYT | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 9/6-8 |
55/44 | 51/44 | 3 | 9/13-15 | Likely | Gallup | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
54/44 | 49/47 | 3.1 | 9/12-15 | Likely | Battleground | +3 | -3 | -5 | +5 | 8/15-17 |
49/46 | 51/40 | 2.5 | 9/11-14 | Registered | Pew | -6 | +6 | +1 | -4 | 9/8-10 |
54/38 | 43/42 | 3 | 9/7-9 | Registered | Time | +9 | -7 | -10 | +13 | 8/3-5 |
51/43 | 46/44 | 3 | 9/7-8 | Likely | Fox | +1 | -1 | -2 | +5 | 8/24-25 |
51/39 | 36/42 | 4 | 9/6-8 | Registered | ABC/WP | +1 | -1 | -7 | +2 | 8/26-29 |
47/39 | 32/41 | 3 | 9/6-8 | Registered | CBS | +4 | -5 | -6 | +7 | 7/30-8/1 |
55/44 | 53/43 | 4 | 9/3-5 | Registered | CNN/USA | +1 | 0 | +1 | +3 | 8/23-25 |
Electoral Vote | |||||||||||
State | Bush | Kerry | Nader | Margin | Sample | Dates | Sponsor/ Pollster | Bush Solid | Bush Close | Kerry Close | Kerry Solid |
AL | 54 | 40 | 1 | 4 | Likely | 9/13-16 | American Research Group | 9 | |||
AK | 57 | 30 | 5 | 4 | Likely | 9/9-11 | American Research Group | 3 | |||
AZ | 49 | 38 | N/A | 4.1 | Registered | 9/23-26 | Arizona State | 10 | |||
AR | 53 | 44 | N/A | 4.2 | Likely | 9/27-29 | Survey USA | 6 |