Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 1 2004 11:40 AM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

79_happybush
86_sadkerry

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

352 Electoral Votes
215 solid, 137 close

186 Electoral Votes
153 solid, 33 close

1_123125_2106526_electoralkey
Advertisement

Analysis Sept. 30: Terrific news for Bush. His average lead in national polls continues to rise. Surveys begun within the last week show margins of 6, 6, 8, and 10, for an average of 7.5. Gallup, which had him up 3 in Florida, now gives him a lead of 9 there, outside the margin of error. Gallup also puts him up 3 points in Pennsylvania; three other recent polls had Kerry leading narrowly there. Kerry's lead in New Jersey is down to 1 point. Silver lining for Kerry: He's down just 2 in Ohio, better than the 4-point deficit in the previous sampling by a different pollster.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

1_123125_2106526_chartexample

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
45 47 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4  9/9-10
51 45 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
51 41 3.6 9/24-28 Likely  ICR -3  9/8-12
4545249/22-27Likely IBD/TIPP 0+3 9/14-18
48 403.5 9/22-26 Registered  Pew+3 -2  9/17-21 
51 45 3.5 9/23-26 Likely  ABC/WP-1 +2  9/6-8
52 44 39/24-26 Likely  CNN/USA-3 +29/13-15 
50 45 03.1 9/22-23 Likely  Battleground+1  9/12-15
48 42 9/21-23 Likely  Time-4 +2  9/7-9 
50 44 9/20-22 Likely  Marist  +3 -3  7/30-8/2 
4643 2 3.1 9/17-19 Likely Zogby0 +19/8-9
49 41 N/A 3 9/20-22 Registered CBS/NYT-1-1 9/12-16
5245 1 3.5 9/20-22 Likely AP0 +2 9/7-9
46 42 1 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox -1 -1 9/7-8
474553.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps00 9/12-14
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
5042339/12-16Registered CBS/NYT+1+1 9/6-8
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 
5242349/7-9Likely Time00 8/31-9/2
514613.59/7-9Likely APN/AN/A   
4743339/7-8Likely Fox+4-1 8/24-25

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
523539/23-26Registered ABC/WP0-3 9/6-8  
54 44 9/24-26 Likely  CNN/USA +2 -1 9/13-15 
53 45 3.1 9/23 Likely  Battleground+1  9/22
53 43 9/21-23 Likely  Time-3 +2 9/7-9 
49 49 3/5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist+2  7/30-8-2
4752 3.1 9/17-19 Likely  Zogby0-1 9/8-9
4844 9/20-22 Registered  CBS/NYT-2 +2  9/12-16
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
49473.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1-1 9/12-14
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
53453.19/12-15Likely Battleground+2-1 8/15-17
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 
494439/7-8Likely Fox-2+1 8/24-25
524539/6-8Registered ABC/WP0-2 8/26-29
504339/6-8Registered CBS+4-2 7/30-
8/1
524649/3-5Registered CNN/USA+3-1 8/23-25

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
48 46 9/30-10/2 Registered  Newsweek -2  9/9-10 
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
47 50 3.1 9/17-19 Likely  Zogby+1 +1 9/8-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 
524539/7-9Registered Time+3-3 8/31-
9/2

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
39 53 3.1 9/23 Likely  Battleground+1 9/22 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9
38 53 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-3 +5  7/30-8/2
43523.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1+1 9/12-14
4153 3.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+1-1 8/15-17
4151 39/12-16Registered CBS/NY Times-3 +1 9/6-8
464939/7-9Registered Time+1-1 8/31-Sept. 2
445239/6-8Registered CBS+5-3 7/30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
55/42 50/46 3.1 9/23 Likely  Battleground-1 +1 -1  
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
46/3832/44 3 9/20-22 Registered CBS/NYT-1 0 +1 +2 9/12-16
52/43 48/34 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
47/38 31/42 39/12-16Registered CBS/NYT  0-1-1 -1 9/6-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
54/4449/473.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+3-3-5+5 8/15-17
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10
54/3843/4239/7-9Registered Time+9-7-10+13 8/3-5
51/4346/4439/7-8Likely Fox+1-1-2+5 8/24-25
51/3936/4249/6-8Registered ABC/WP+1-1-7+2 8/26-29
47/3932/4139/6-8Registered CBS+4-5-6+7 7/30-8/1
55/4453/4349/3-5Registered CNN/USA+10+1+38/23-25

TODAY IN SLATE

History

Slate Plus Early Read: The Self-Made Man

The story of America’s most pliable, pernicious, irrepressible myth.

Rehtaeh Parsons Was the Most Famous Victim in Canada. Now, Journalists Can’t Even Say Her Name.

Mitt Romney May Be Weighing a 2016 Run. That Would Be a Big Mistake.

Amazing Photos From Hong Kong’s Umbrella Revolution

Transparent Is the Fall’s Only Great New Show

The XX Factor

Rehtaeh Parsons Was the Most Famous Victim in Canada

Now, journalists can't even say her name.

Doublex

Lena Dunham, the Book

More shtick than honesty in Not That Kind of Girl.

What a Juicy New Book About Diane Sawyer and Katie Couric Fails to Tell Us About the TV News Business

Does Your Child Have Sluggish Cognitive Tempo? Or Is That Just a Disorder Made Up to Scare You?

  News & Politics
Damned Spot
Sept. 30 2014 9:00 AM Now Stare. Don’t Stop. The perfect political wife’s loving gaze in campaign ads.
  Business
Moneybox
Sept. 29 2014 7:01 PM We May Never Know If Larry Ellison Flew a Fighter Jet Under the Golden Gate Bridge
  Life
Dear Prudence
Sept. 30 2014 6:00 AM Drive-By Bounty Prudie advises a woman whose boyfriend demands she flash truckers on the highway.
  Double X
Doublex
Sept. 29 2014 11:43 PM Lena Dunham, the Book More shtick than honesty in Not That Kind of Girl.
  Slate Plus
Slate Fare
Sept. 29 2014 8:45 AM Slate Isn’t Too Liberal, but … What readers said about the magazine’s bias and balance.
  Arts
Brow Beat
Sept. 29 2014 9:06 PM Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice Looks Like a Comic Masterpiece
  Technology
Future Tense
Sept. 30 2014 7:36 AM Almost Humane What sci-fi can teach us about our treatment of prisoners of war.
  Health & Science
Bad Astronomy
Sept. 30 2014 7:30 AM What Lurks Beneath The Methane Lakes of Titan?
  Sports
Sports Nut
Sept. 28 2014 8:30 PM NFL Players Die Young. Or Maybe They Live Long Lives. Why it’s so hard to pin down the effects of football on players’ lives.