Election Scorecard for week of Sept. 11.

Where the presidential race stands today.

Sept 17, 200410:00 AM

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If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser

344 Electoral Votes
167 solid, 177 close 194 Electoral Votes
146 solid, 48 close

The following tables track the latest polls in the presidential race. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be reelected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorableimpression of each candidate.

The fifth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by more than twice the margin, we put that state’s electoral votes in his “solid” column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his “close” column.

Trial Heat								Trend
Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster		Bush	Kerry	Since
50	42	3	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/New York Times		+1	+1	Sept. 5-9
54	40	3	4	Sept. 13-15	Likely	Gallup		N/A	N/A	N/A
47	46	1	2.5	Sept. 11-14	Likely	Pew Research		-7	+8	Sept. 8-10
47	48	2	4	Sept. 9-13	Likely	Harris		0	+7	Aug. 10-15
47	45	3	3.1	Sept. 12-14	Likely	Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research		-1	0	Sept. 6-9
51	44	3	3.6	Sept. 8-12	Likely	ICR		+5	-2	Sept. 1-5
46	46	3	3.5	Sept. 7-12	Likely	IBD/TIPP		N/A	N/A
49	43	2	4	Sept. 9-10	Registered	Newsweek		-3	+2	Sept. 2-3
52	42	3	4	Sept. 7-9	Likely	Time		0	0	Aug. 31-Sept. 2
51	46	1	3.5	Sept. 7-9	Likely	AP		N/A	N/A
47	43	3	3	Sept. 7-8	Likely	Fox	+4	-1	Aug. 24-25

Bush Job Approval						Trend
Approve	Disapprove	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Approve	Disapprove	Since
52	45	3	Sept. 13-15	Likely	Gallup	0	-1	Sept. 3-5
48	44	4	Sept. 9-10	Registered	Newsweek			Sept. 2-3
56	41	3	Sept. 7-9	Registered	Time	+1	-1	Aug. 31- Sept. 2
49	44	3	Sept. 7-8	Likely	Fox	-2	+1	Aug. 24-25
52	45	3	Sept. 6-8	Registered	ABC/WP	0	-2	Aug. 26-29
50	43	3	Sept. 6-8	Registered	CBS	+4	-2	July. 30- Aug. 1
52	46	4	Sept. 3-5	Registered	CNN/USA	+3	-1	Aug. 23-25

Re-Elect						Trend
Yes	No	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Yes	No	Since
50	46	3	Sept. 9-10	Registered	Newsweek	-3	+3	Sept. 2-3
52	45	3	Sept. 7-9	Registered	Time	+3	-3	Aug 31- Sept. 2

Right Direction/Wrong Track						Trend
Right	Wrong	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Right	Wrong	Since
46	49	3	Sept. 7-9	Registered	Time	+1	-1	Aug. 31-Sept. 2
44	52	3	Sept. 6-8	Registered	CBS	+5	-3	July 30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating						Bush Trend		Kerry Trend
Bush	Kerry	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Fav	Unfav	Fav	Unfav	Since
47/38	31/42	3	Sept. 12-16	Registered	CBS/New York Times	0	-1	-1	-1	Sept. 5-9
55/44	51/44	3	Sept. 13-15	Likely	Gallup	N/A N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
49/46	51/40	2.5	Sept. 11-14	Registered	Pew Research	-6	+6	+1	-4	Sept. 8-10
52/44	48/44	3	Sept. 9-10	Registered	Newsweek	-3	+4	+3	-2	Sept. 2-3
54/38	43/42	3	Sept. 7-9	Registered	Time	+9	-7	-10	+13	Aug. 3-5
51/43	46/44	3	Sept. 7-8	Likely	Fox	+1	-1	-2	+5	Aug. 24-25
51/39	36/42	4	Sept. 6-8	Registered	ABC/WP	+1	-1	-7	+2	Aug. 26-29
47/39	32/41	3	Sept. 6-8	Registered	CBS	+4	-5	-6	+7	June 30-Aug.1
55/44	53/43	4	Sept. 3-5	Registered	CNN/USA	+1	0	+1	+3	Aug. 23-25

								Electoral Vote
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Sample	Dates	Sponsor/ Pollster	Bush Solid	Bush Close	Kerry Close	Kerry Solid
AL	57	30	5	4	Likely	9/9-11	American Research Group	9
AK	56	33		4.3	Registered	6/23-30	Dittman Research	3
AZ	50	39	N/A	4	Likely	9/13-16	Knight Ridder	10
AR	48	47	N/A	4.2	Likely	8/20-22	Survey USA		6
CA	41	52	N/A	3	Registered	9/11-13	American Research Group				55
CO	46	45	3	4	Likely	Sept. 9-11	American Research Group		9
CT	38	45	N/A	3	Registered	8/12-17	Quinnipiac University				7
DE	46	48	N/A	4.4	Registered	8/16-21	Zogby Interactive			3
DC											3
FL	48	44	2	3	Registered	8/26-28	Strategic Vision		27
GA	55	38	N/A	3	Registered	8/26-28	Strategic Vision	15
HI	41	51	4	4	Likely	9/7-11	American Research Group			4
ID	59	30	3	4	Likely	9/8-10	American Research Group	4
IL	38	52	N/A	4	Registered	8/13-16	Market Shares Corp.				21
IN	54	38	N/A	4	Likely	9/7-9	Research 2000	11
IA	48	47		3	Likely	9/13-15	Strategic Vision		7
KS	57	39	N/A	4.1	Registered	3/3-4	Survey USA	6
KY	57	39	N/A	4	Likely	9/8-12	American Research Group	8
LA	53	36	N/A	4.1	Registered	8/31-9/2	Marketing Research	9
ME	44	48	4	4	Likely	9/8-10	American Research Group			4
MD	43	52	2	4	Likely	9/7-9	American Research Group				10
MA	27	64		4	Likely	9/10-13	American Research Group				12
MI	43	50	1	4	Registered	9/10-13	CNN/USA Today/Gallup			17
MN	46	44	1	4	Likely	9/11-14	Mason Dixon		10
MS	61	30	N/A	5.8	Registered	4/5-21	Mississippi State Univ.	6
MO	48	41	1	4	Likely	9/13-16	Knight Ridder		11
MT	53	33	N/A	4	Registered	5/24-26	Mason-Dixon	3
NE	61	30	2	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group	5
NV	50	45	1	4	Likely	9/13-16	Knight Ridder		5
NH	49	40	3	4	Likely	9/13-15	Mason-Dixon	4
NJ	41	43	N/A	4.3	Likely	9/3-7	Star-Ledger/Eagleton			15
NM	45	42	N/A	3	Registered	8/27-9/1	Research & Polling Inc.		5
NY	41	47	4	2.6	Registered	9/7-12	Quinnipiac				31
NC	48	45	N/A	4.9	Registered	8/8-11	Research 2000		15
ND	62	33	1	4	Likely	7-10		3
OH	49	42	2	4	Likely	9/14-15	Mason-Dixon	20
OK	64	30	N/A	5	Registered	9/1-2	Westhill Partners	7
OR	47	45	2	4	Likely	9/10-13	American Research Group		7
PA	49	46	2	4	Likely	9/9-12	ABC News		21
RI	30	58	4	4	Likely	9/11-13	American Research Group				4
SC	54	42	N/A	4	Registered	9/7-9	Public Opinion Strategies	8
SD	58	39	N/A	4.4	Registered	8/24-26	Public Opinion Strategies	3
TN	11
TX	57	34	N/A	3	Registered	8/9-26	Scripps Howard	34
UT	64	27	4	4	Likely	9/10-13	American Research Group	5
VT	40	50	4	4	Likely	9/9-12	American Research Group				3
VA	49	45	N/A	3.7	Likely	8/20-22	Survey USA	13
WA	45	44	N/A	4	Likely	9/13-14	Mason-Dixon		11
WV	44	48	N/A	4	Registered	7/26-28	American Research Group			5
WI	52	44	1	5	Likely	9/9-12	CNN/USA Today/Gallup		10
WY	65	29	2	4	Likely	9/9-11	American Research Group	3