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If the Election Were Held Today | |||
Winner | Loser | ||
167 solid, 177 close
146 solid, 48 close
The following tables track the latest polls in the presidential race. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be reelected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorableimpression of each candidate.
The fifth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by more than twice the margin, we put that state’s electoral votes in his “solid” column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his “close” column.
Trial Heat | Trend | |||||||||
Bush | Kerry | Nader | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Bush | Kerry | Since | |
50 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 9/12-16 | Registered | CBS/New York Times | +1 | +1 | Sept. 5-9 | |
54 | 40 | 3 | 4 | Sept. 13-15 | Likely | Gallup | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
47 | 46 | 1 | 2.5 | Sept. 11-14 | Likely | Pew Research | -7 | +8 | Sept. 8-10 | |
47 | 48 | 2 | 4 | Sept. 9-13 | Likely | Harris | 0 | +7 | Aug. 10-15 | |
47 | 45 | 3 | 3.1 | Sept. 12-14 | Likely | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research | -1 | 0 | Sept. 6-9 | |
51 | 44 | 3 | 3.6 | Sept. 8-12 | Likely | ICR | +5 | -2 | Sept. 1-5 | |
46 | 46 | 3 | 3.5 | Sept. 7-12 | Likely | IBD/TIPP | N/A | N/A | ||
49 | 43 | 2 | 4 | Sept. 9-10 | Registered | Newsweek | -3 | +2 | Sept. 2-3 | |
52 | 42 | 3 | 4 | Sept. 7-9 | Likely | Time | 0 | 0 | Aug. 31-Sept. 2 | |
51 | 46 | 1 | 3.5 | Sept. 7-9 | Likely | AP | N/A | N/A | ||
47 | 43 | 3 | 3 | Sept. 7-8 | Likely | Fox | +4 | -1 | Aug. 24-25 |
Bush Job Approval | Trend | ||||||||
Approve | Disapprove | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Approve | Disapprove | Since | |
52 | 45 | 3 | Sept. 13-15 | Likely | Gallup | 0 | -1 | Sept. 3-5 | |
48 | 44 | 4 | Sept. 9-10 | Registered | Newsweek | Sept. 2-3 | |||
56 | 41 | 3 | Sept. 7-9 | Registered | Time | +1 | -1 | Aug. 31- Sept. 2 | |
49 | 44 | 3 | Sept. 7-8 | Likely | Fox | -2 | +1 | Aug. 24-25 | |
52 | 45 | 3 | Sept. 6-8 | Registered | ABC/WP | 0 | -2 | Aug. 26-29 | |
50 | 43 | 3 | Sept. 6-8 | Registered | CBS | +4 | -2 | July. 30- Aug. 1 | |
52 | 46 | 4 | Sept. 3-5 | Registered | CNN/USA | +3 | -1 | Aug. 23-25 |
Re-Elect | Trend | ||||||||
Yes | No | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Yes | No | Since | |
50 | 46 | 3 | Sept. 9-10 | Registered | Newsweek | -3 | +3 | Sept. 2-3 | |
52 | 45 | 3 | Sept. 7-9 | Registered | Time | +3 | -3 | Aug 31- Sept. 2 |
Right Direction/Wrong Track | Trend | ||||||||
Right | Wrong | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Right | Wrong | Since | |
46 | 49 | 3 | Sept. 7-9 | Registered | Time | +1 | -1 | Aug. 31-Sept. 2 | |
44 | 52 | 3 | Sept. 6-8 | Registered | CBS | +5 | -3 | July 30-Aug. 1 |
Favorable/Unfavorable Rating | Bush Trend | Kerry Trend | ||||||||
Bush | Kerry | Margin of Error | Dates | Voters Sampled | Sponsor/ Pollster | Fav | Unfav | Fav | Unfav | Since |
47/38 | 31/42 | 3 | Sept. 12-16 | Registered | CBS/New York Times | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | Sept. 5-9 |
55/44 | 51/44 | 3 | Sept. 13-15 | Likely | Gallup | N/A N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
49/46 | 51/40 | 2.5 | Sept. 11-14 | Registered | Pew Research | -6 | +6 | +1 | -4 | Sept. 8-10 |
52/44 | 48/44 | 3 | Sept. 9-10 | Registered | Newsweek | -3 | +4 | +3 | -2 | Sept. 2-3 |
54/38 | 43/42 | 3 | Sept. 7-9 | Registered | Time | +9 | -7 | -10 | +13 | Aug. 3-5 |
51/43 | 46/44 | 3 | Sept. 7-8 | Likely | Fox | +1 | -1 | -2 | +5 | Aug. 24-25 |
51/39 | 36/42 | 4 | Sept. 6-8 | Registered | ABC/WP | +1 | -1 | -7 | +2 | Aug. 26-29 |
47/39 | 32/41 | 3 | Sept. 6-8 | Registered | CBS | +4 | -5 | -6 | +7 | June 30-Aug.1 |
55/44 | 53/43 | 4 | Sept. 3-5 | Registered | CNN/USA | +1 | 0 | +1 | +3 | Aug. 23-25 |
Electoral Vote | |||||||||||
State | Bush | Kerry | Nader | Margin | Sample | Dates | Sponsor/ Pollster | Bush Solid | Bush Close | Kerry Close | Kerry Solid |
AL | 57 | 30 | 5 | 4 | Likely | 9/9-11 | American Research Group | 9 | |||
AK | 56 | 33 | 4.3 | Registered | 6/23-30 | Dittman Research | 3 | ||||
AZ | 50 | 39 | N/A | 4 | Likely | 9/13-16 | Knight Ridder | 10 | |||
AR | 48 | 47 | N/A | 4.2 | Likely | 8/20-22 | Survey USA | 6 | |||
CA | 41 | 52 | N/A | 3 | Registered | 9/11-13 | American Research Group | 55 | |||
CO | 46 | 45 | 3 | 4 | Likely | Sept. 9-11 | American Research Group | 9 | |||
CT | 38 | 45 | N/A | 3 | Registered | 8/12-17 | Quinnipiac University | 7 | |||
DE | 46 | 48 | N/A | 4.4 | Registered | 8/16-21 | Zogby Interactive | 3 | |||
DC | 3 | ||||||||||
FL | 48 | 44 | 2 | 3 | Registered | 8/26-28 | Strategic Vision | 27 | |||
GA | 55 | 38 | N/A | 3 | Registered | 8/26-28 | Strategic Vision | 15 | |||
HI | 41 | 51 | 4 | 4 | Likely | 9/7-11 | American Research Group | 4 | |||
ID | 59 | 30 | 3 | 4 | Likely | 9/8-10 | American Research Group | 4 | |||
IL | 38 | 52 | N/A | 4 | Registered | 8/13-16 | Market Shares Corp. | 21 | |||
IN | 54 | 38 | N/A | 4 | Likely | 9/7-9 | Research 2000 | 11 | |||
IA | 48 | 47 | 3 | Likely | 9/13-15 | Strategic Vision | 7 | ||||
KS | 57 | 39 | N/A | 4.1 | Registered | 3/3-4 | Survey USA | 6 | |||
KY | 57 | 39 | N/A | 4 | Likely | 9/8-12 | American Research Group | 8 | |||
LA | 53 | 36 | N/A | 4.1 | Registered | 8/31-9/2 | Marketing Research | 9 | |||
ME | 44 | 48 | 4 | 4 | Likely | 9/8-10 | American Research Group | 4 | |||
MD | 43 | 52 | 2 | 4 | Likely | 9/7-9 | American Research Group | 10 | |||
MA | 27 | 64 | 4 | Likely | 9/10-13 | American Research Group | 12 | ||||
MI | 43 | 50 | 1 | 4 | Registered | 9/10-13 | CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 17 | |||
MN | 46 | 44 | 1 | 4 | Likely | 9/11-14 | Mason Dixon | 10 | |||
MS | 61 | 30 | N/A | 5.8 | Registered | 4/5-21 | Mississippi State Univ. | 6 | |||
MO | 48 | 41 | 1 | 4 | Likely | 9/13-16 | Knight Ridder | 11 | |||
MT | 53 | 33 | N/A | 4 | Registered | 5/24-26 | Mason-Dixon | 3 | |||
NE | 61 | 30 | 2 | 4 | Likely | 9/9-12 | American Research Group | 5 | |||
NV | 50 | 45 | 1 | 4 | Likely | 9/13-16 | Knight Ridder | 5 | |||
NH | 49 | 40 | 3 | 4 | Likely | 9/13-15 | Mason-Dixon | 4 | |||
NJ | 41 | 43 | N/A | 4.3 | Likely | 9/3-7 | Star-Ledger/Eagleton | 15 | |||
NM | 45 | 42 | N/A | 3 | Registered | 8/27-9/1 | Research & Polling Inc. | 5 | |||
NY | 41 | 47 | 4 | 2.6 | Registered | 9/7-12 | Quinnipiac | 31 | |||
NC | 48 | 45 | N/A | 4.9 | Registered | 8/8-11 | Research 2000 | 15 | |||
ND | 62 | 33 | 1 | 4 | Likely | 7-10 | 3 | ||||
OH | 49 | 42 | 2 | 4 | Likely | 9/14-15 | Mason-Dixon | 20 | |||
OK | 64 | 30 | N/A | 5 | Registered | 9/1-2 | Westhill Partners | 7 | |||
OR | 47 | 45 | 2 | 4 | Likely | 9/10-13 | American Research Group | 7 | |||
PA | 49 | 46 | 2 | 4 | Likely | 9/9-12 | ABC News | 21 | |||
RI | 30 | 58 | 4 | 4 | Likely | 9/11-13 | American Research Group | 4 | |||
SC | 54 | 42 | N/A | 4 | Registered | 9/7-9 | Public Opinion Strategies | 8 | |||
SD | 58 | 39 | N/A | 4.4 | Registered | 8/24-26 | Public Opinion Strategies | 3 | |||
TN | 11 | ||||||||||
TX | 57 | 34 | N/A | 3 | Registered | 8/9-26 | Scripps Howard | 34 | |||
UT | 64 | 27 | 4 | 4 | Likely | 9/10-13 | American Research Group | 5 | |||
VT | 40 | 50 | 4 | 4 | Likely | 9/9-12 | American Research Group | 3 | |||
VA | 49 | 45 | N/A | 3.7 | Likely | 8/20-22 | Survey USA | 13 | |||
WA | 45 | 44 | N/A | 4 | Likely | 9/13-14 | Mason-Dixon | 11 | |||
WV | 44 | 48 | N/A | 4 | Registered | 7/26-28 | American Research Group | 5 | |||
WI | 52 | 44 | 1 | 5 | Likely | 9/9-12 | CNN/USA Today/Gallup | 10 | |||
WY | 65 | 29 | 2 | 4 | Likely | 9/9-11 | American Research Group | 3 |