Election Scorecard for week of Sept. 19.

Where the elections stand today.
Sept. 26 2004 10:00 AM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

79_happybush
86_sadkerry

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

321 Electoral Votes
182 solid, 139 close

217 Electoral Votes
150 solid, 67 close

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The following tables track the latest polls in the presidential race. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be reelected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorableimpression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

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FL 45 46 2 4 Likely 9/17-20 American Research Group  
27  

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
48 44 9/21-23 Likely  Time-4 +2  9/7-9 
50 44 9/20-22 Likely  Marist  +3 -3  7/30-8/2 
4643 2 3.1 9/17-19 Likely Zogby0 +19/8-9
49 41 N/A 3 9/20-22 Registered CBS/NYT-1-1 9/12-16
5245 1 3.5 9/20-22 Likely AP0 +2 9/7-9
46 42 1 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox News/Opinion Dynamics-1 -1 9/7-8
474553.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps00 9/12-14
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
49 45 1 3.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+2-4 8/15-17
45 42 2 4 9/14-18Likely IBD/TIPP-1 -4 9/7-12
5042339/12-16Registered CBS/NYT+1+1 9/6-8
54 40 3 4 9/13-15 Likely Gallup +2-5 9/3-5
47 46 1 2.5 9/11-14 Likely Pew-7 +8 9/8-10
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
5144 3 3.6 9/8-12Likely ICR+5-2 9/1-5
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 
4943249/9-10Registered Newsweek-3+2 9/2-3
5242349/7-9Likely Time00 8/31-9/2
514613.59/7-9Likely APN/AN/A   
4743339/7-8Likely Fox+4-1 8/24-25

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
49 49 3/5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist+2  7/30-8-2
4752 3.1 9/17-19 Likely  Zogby0-1 9/8-9
4844 9/20-22 Registered  CBS/NYT-2 +2  9/12-16
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox News/Opinion Dynamics+1 +1  9/7-8
49473.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1-1 9/12-14
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
53453.19/12-15Likely Battleground+2-1 8/15-17
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 
52 45 3 9/13-15 Likely Gallup0 -1 9/3-5
484449/9-10Registered Newsweek-4+3  9/2-3
564139/7-9Registered Time+1-1 8/31-9/2
494439/7-8Likely Fox-2+1 8/24-25
524539/6-8Registered ABC/WP0-2 8/26-29
504339/6-8Registered CBS+4-2 7/30-
8/1
524649/3-5Registered CNN/USA+3-1 8/23-25

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
47 50 3.1 9/17-19 Likely  Zogby+1 +1 9/8-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 
504639/9-10Registered Newsweek-3+3 9/2-3
524539/7-9Registered Time+3-3 8/31-
9/2

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9
38 53 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-3 +5  7/30-8/2
43523.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1+1 9/12-14
4153 3.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+1-1 8/15-17
4151 39/12-16Registered CBS/NY Times-3 +1 9/6-8
464939/7-9Registered Time+1-1 8/31-Sept. 2
445239/6-8Registered CBS+5-3 7/30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
46/3832/44 3 9/20-22 Registered CBS/NYT-1 0 +1 +2 9/12-16
52/43 48/34 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox News/Opinion Dynamics+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
47/38 31/42 39/12-16Registered CBS/NYT  0-1-1 -1 9/6-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
54/4449/473.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+3-3-5+5 8/15-17
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10
52/4448/4439/9-10Registered Newsweek-3+4+3-2 9/2-3
54/3843/4239/7-9Registered Time+9-7-10+13 8/3-5
51/4346/4439/7-8Likely Fox+1-1-2+5 8/24-25
51/3936/4249/6-8Registered ABC/WP+1-1-7+2 8/26-29
47/3932/4139/6-8Registered CBS+4-5-6+7 7/30-8/1
55/4453/4349/3-5Registered CNN/USA+10+1+38/23-25

 Electoral Vote
StateBushKerryNaderMarginSampleDatesSponsor/
Pollster
Bush
Solid
Bush
Close
Kerry
Close
Kerry
Solid
AL

57

3054Likely9/9-11 American Research Group9   
AK5633 4.3Registered6/23-30 Dittman Research3   
AZ5039N/A4Likely9/13-16 Knight Ridder10   

AR

48

47

N/A

4.2

Likely

8/20-22

Survey USA

 6   
CA3951N/A3Likely9/12-19 Public Policy Institute     55
CO5244N/A 4Likely9/21-23 Survey USA   
CT3845N/A3Registered8/12-17 Quinnipiac University     7
DE4648N/A4.4Registered8/16-21 Zogby Interactive   3 
DC            3
FL494624Likely9/18-22 Gallup 27  
GA5538N/A3Registered8/26-28 Strategic Vision15   
HI415144Likely9/7-11 American Research Group   
ID59 30 3 4 Likely 9/8-10 American Research Group4   
IL3954N/A4Likely9/14-16 Research 2000     21
IN5438N/A4Likely9/7-9 Research 200011   
IA48453Likely9/21-22 Fox News    
KS573524 Likely9/15-18  American Research Group6   
KY533833.8Likely9/10-15 Bluegrass Poll8   
LA504214Likely9/17-21 American Research Group9   
ME4746N/A3.6Likely9/20-22 Survey USA   
MD435224Likely9/7-9 American Research Group    10
MA2764 4Likely9/10-13 American Research Group    12
MI444613Likely9/21-22 Fox News  

17

 
MN4646N/A4.5Likely9/18-24 Rasmussen 10  
MS6130N/A5.8Registered4/5-21 Mississippi State Univ.6   
MO5044N/A4Likely9/16-19 American Research Group 11  
MT5333N/A4Registered5/24-26 Mason-Dixon3   
NE613024Likely9/9-12 American Research Group5   
NV524315Likely9/18-21 Gallup 5   
NH464624Likely9/20-23 Research 20004      
NJ4347N/A3.2Likely9/16-19 Quinnipiac  15 
NM474324Likely9/15-16 Mason Dixon 5  
NY405214Likely9/14-16 American Research Group    31
NC4845N/A4.9Registered8/8-11 Research 2000 15  
ND62 33 1 4 Likely 7-10   3    
OH484423Likely9/21-22 Fox News 20   
OK6430N/A5Registered9/1-2 Westhill Partners7    
OR4847N/A3.7Likely9/19-21 Survey USA    7      
PA4749N/A3Likely9/16-24 Temple University      21  
RI305844Likely9/11-13 American Research Group     4
SC5442N/A4Registered9/7-9 Public Opinion Strategies8   
SD5839N/A4.4Registered8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies3   
TN53371 4 Likely 9/11-14 Mason-Dixon11      
TX5734N/A3Registered8/9-26 Scripps Howard34   
UT642744Likely9/10-13 American Research Group5   
VT405044Likely9/9-12 American Research Group    3
VA4943N/A Likely 9/12-14  American Research Group  13    
WA425124.9Likely9/17-20 Ipsos-Public Affairs  11 
WV5145N/A5Likely9/17-20 Gallup     
WI523844Likely9/16-21 University of  Wisconsin10     
WY65 29 2 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3   

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