The Electoral-Cycles Theory
Does al-Qaida systematically attack immediately before or after a change in leaders?
This is the seventh part in a series of eight exploring why the United States suffered no follow-up terror attacks after 9/11. To read the series introduction, click here.
President Bush liked to say that al-Qaida hated America because it was a democracy. That's true in the limited sense that Osama Bin Laden shows little interest in emulating that form of government. But if al-Qaida's purpose in attacking the United States is to provoke a massive domestic uprising to force a United States retreat from the Muslim world, as some believe (see "The Burden-of-Success Theory"), then Bin Laden ought to love that America is a democracy. Democracies, after all, are much more sensitive to shifts in public opinion than dictatorships. Indeed, elections may provide an especially handy occasion for al-Qaida to terrorize the public into effecting a radical change in government policy. Does al-Qaida time its actions accordingly?
Daniel Benjamin, former director for counterterrorism on the National Security Council in the Clinton White House (reportedly set to take the counterterrorism portfolio in the Obama State Department); Richard Clarke, the NSC's former national coordinator for security and counterterrorism in the Clinton and then the Bush White House; and Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer, all believe that it does. Writing in Slate two weeks before the presidential election, Benjamin argued that elections are "seam moments, the points of inflection in history, and the terrorists want to demonstrate that they are central players in determining outcomes." Consider:
- Less than one month before the 2000 presidential election, al-Qaida carried out a suicide bombing of the USS Cole, then docked in the Yemeni port of Aden.
- Three days before Spain's March 2004 parliamentary elections, a local al-Qaida affiliate carried out train bombings in Madrid, creating a last-minute surge for the Socialist Party. The new government withdrew Spanish troops from Iraq.
- Three months before 2006's U.S. midterm congressional elections, British authorities shut down a planned coordinated attack by al-Qaida on jumbo jets flying to the United States. This conspiracy, which prompted the "liquids and gels" ban, was in a late stage. The GOP lost control of the House and Senate.
- At the end of 2007, Pakistani extremists believed to be working with al-Qaida assassinated Benazir Bhutto, who had recently returned from exile to seek a third term as prime minister. Her husband became president as a result.
Did al-Qaida achieve its desired results? To believe that, you'd have to believe that al-Qaida preferred more dovish government in Spain but more hawkish government in the United States (except in Congress, which it preferred to be more dovish) and that for some reason it preferred Asif Ali Zardari to his wife. That wouldn't make much sense. It's possible al-Qaida harbored incorrect notions about how these various events would play out. Al-Qaida is typically credited with preferring hawkish foes to dovish ones because that throws the "clash of civilizations" into greater relief, but who really knows? Does al-Qaida favor certain candidates or parties? Benjamin concedes there's little evidence to support that notion. "If al-Qaeda attacks occur when they are most convenient for the attackers," argues Benjamin H. Friedman, a terrorism expert at the Cato Institute,
Timothy Noah is a former Slate staffer. His book about income inequality is The Great Divergence.