The Breakfast Table

Superstition in the Absence of Evidence

Dear Marjorie,

Sorry for not replying sooner. I was up late last night yapping about the elections on CNN and up early this morning doing the same thing in my daughter’s kindergarten class. (The second, not surprisingly, was more fun. I played the ladybug in the “Democracy Comes to the Forest” puppet show.) I hope it doesn’t sound cynical or world-weary to say I can’t wait till this whole extravaganza is over. Because I can’t. My wife and I spend our spare moments talking through the short but elaborate vacation we’re taking after Election Day.

Speaking of free moments, totally by accident I caught the tail end of Jeopardy last night. I hadn’t seen the show in years. It’s pretty good. There were two men and a woman on last night’s show. All three knew the answer to the final question. (“Gary Francis Powers” was the answer though unfortunately the question has escaped me.) Here’s the interesting part: One of the men wimped out completely. He didn’t bet anything. He looked embarrassed–though not embarrassed enough, I thought–when his screen came up with a giant zero in the middle of it.

The lone woman, meanwhile, emptied both barrels. She bet every dollar. She still lost, but it didn’t matter. She played Jeopardy with honor, with dignity, with the sort of purposeful recklessness I admire in athletes, soldiers, and game show contestants. You would have been proud. I think she would have made you feel better about your gender.

As for feeling better about Al Gore, I can’t help you. After getting your letter yesterday, I conducted a quick focus group to test your thesis that the press has declared Gore dead. I asked about a dozen reporters–Republican, Democrat, Independent, drunk–for an assessment of the race. Not one expected Gore to win. A couple made the same point you did: There’s a week to go, it remains very tight, and anything could happen. But no one seemed to really believe this. It’s over was the absolute consensus.

Why do reporters feel this way? I like your theory that it’s a function of self-loathing, and you may be right. But I think there’s also another factor: mysticism. No one I know has any real idea why voters are behaving the way they are this year–why the polls have been bouncing around, why Gore has been unable to capitalize on the state of the economy, why silly nonevents like kisses and appearances on Oprah seem to be having a real effect on who is going to be the next president.

It’s weird. Voters are weird. There are no obvious patterns in this race. So if you’re a reporter and it’s your job to find obvious patterns, at some point you just start looking for signs that might indicate what’s going to happen next. Because you don’t have anything better to go on.

So when Gore seemed to be winning six weeks ago, everyone I knew took this as proof that he was going to win. Republicans in Washington began to complain bitterly about the lame, weak, ineffectual campaign being run out of Austin. Then, suddenly, the candidates’ fortunes reversed. Who knows why? Who has time to figure it out? The point is Bush is winning now. Therefore he’s sure to win.

In the absence of evidence, superstition. It’s a Middle Ages thing. That’s my theory anyway.

Tough day for Jim Moran, huh?

Best,
Tucker