One question still needs to be answered: How many home runs will Barry Bonds hit this year? That is, how strong is regression to the mean? If our discussion above is correct, then hitters who lead the major leagues in home runs at the All-Star break should tend to decline in the second half of the season. Thanks to David Vincent of the Society for American Baseball Research, we have those numbers in hand for every non-strike season since 1933. (Click
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