Is the economy heading into recession?

Is the economy heading into recession?

Commentary about business and finance.
July 31 2006 5:58 PM

The "R" Word

Are we heading into a recession?

(Continued from Page 1)

Today, economists and American consumers don't seem to be particularly worried about recession. But things can change quickly. Roubini notes that the economy went from supercharged growth to recession in the space of six months: "In Q2 of 2000 the economy was growing at an annualized rate of over 5 percent and it slowed down to close to 0 percent by Q4 and entered into an outright recession by Q1 of 2001." In the first quarter of 2006, the economy grew at a 5.6 percent annual rate.

So, be careful however you bet. Relying on professional economic forecasters to tell us when a recession will start—and how long it will last—will be like relying on weather forecasters to tell us today whether it will rain on Labor Day weekend.

Daniel Gross is a longtime Slate contributor. His most recent book is Better, Stronger, Faster. Follow him on Twitter.

  Life
The History of American Slavery
Sept. 3 2015 11:17 AM Why They Fled Underground Railroad operator Sydney Howard Gay’s meticulous guestbook reveals how and why enslaved men and women risked everything to escape north.
  Slate Plus
The History of American Slavery
Sept. 3 2015 10:59 AM To Do No Harm? History of American Slavery, Episode 7: What modern medicine gained from slavery, and how slaveholders sought to legitimize their ideology through science.