How U.S. policies are driving away foreign visitors, and harming the American economy.

Trade and job creation
Nov. 23 2010 4:47 PM

America's Looming Tourism Crisis

How U.S. policies are driving away foreign visitors, and harming the American economy.

Also in Slate: Martha C. White explores California's domination of  the international almond market, Boeing's push to  sell more aircraft overseas, an innovative air-conditioning company's efforts to break into the international cleantech market, how a small steel manufacturer  thrives on the world stage, how a small American software company can compete cheaply abroad, and how exports can  save the American economy.

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Marketing the country might sound like a challenge, but it's not the biggest one the new CTP faces. Even when foreigners want to visit here, our visa requirements can trip them up. Right now, there are just three dozen countries on a visa-waiver list. Since 9/11, citizens from countries not on that list must endure an onerous, expensive process involving an in-person interview just to come for a vacation. There are no exceptions, not even for people who live thousands of miles from the nearest office or for children.

Brazil is a great example of the hassles travelers have to endure to secure visas, says Melissa Froehlich Flood, vice president of government affairs at Marriott International. There are only four consular offices in the entire 3.3 million-square-mile country, and scheduling an interview at one of them can take upward of 90 days. The USTA estimates that a Brazilian family seeking to vacation in the United States would have to shell out $2,600 just to get visas if they lived in Manaus, a 2,054-mile drive from the Embassy in Brasilia. That's $2,600 spent on travel before the trip even begins. After that, there's another wait of two to three weeks while the visa is actually processed. Faced with these kinds of demands, it's perhaps not surprising that the rapidly growing middle classes in many emerging markets choose to vacation elsewhere. The slow process hurts hotels, restaurants, stores, and other businesses at which tourists spend their money. It's also a hindrance to American exporters, since there's no way to fast-track the visa of a businessperson who wants to come to the United States to purchase American-made goods.

Unfortunately, some of our biggest potential tourism markets—China, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and India—aren't part of the visa-waiver program. One of the criteria the Department of Homeland Security and State Department uses when determining which countries to put on the visa waiver program is the refusal rate—the percentage of prospective travelers denied visas. Traditionally, only countries with a 3 percent rate or lower would be considered for the program, but the government decided in 2007 to allow countries with refusal rates of up to 10 percent join the program, provided they met the rest of the criteria. China and India, with refusal rates of about 16 percent and 29 percent, respectively, are probably off the table for now, but Brazil's rate is 7 percent, which leaves the USTA hopeful that the government might add it to the waiver list. It's not a guarantee, though. Raising the 3 percent refusal rate to 10 percent was a temporary relaxation, contingent on the planned implementation of a system to collect visitor biometric data upon exiting the United States, a project that's been stalled because of cost concerns. (Watchdog groups have also raised privacy objections.) Marriott's Froehlich Flood estimates that the number of Brazilian tourists would increase by 121 percent if the visa situation were improved. 

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In the meantime, the CTP says it's going to work on a traveler-education program to guide visitors through the complex visa process. Long term, new technology seems to be the industry's best hope to break the visa logjam.

Neither the CTP nor USTA wants to be perceived as cutting corners on traveler safety, so nudging the State Department and the Department of Homeland Security to streamline their protocols will take the utmost in diplomacy. Videoconferencing tools exist that would theoretically let a consular officer interview a would-be traveler remotely. The technology is like a souped-up version of Skype, with biometric readers that could record and verify a person's fingerprints in real time. This kind of technology costs money, though, and even trying a pilot program would require congressional funding and approval.

If the United States gets this right, it has a chance to seriously boost exports. Helen Marano, director of the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries in the Commerce Department, says her agency projects that tourism could rise by 51 percent from 2009 through 2015, an increase of 27.9 million travelers, and more than $100 billion in exports.

Video: The Export Revolution

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Martha C. White is a freelance writer in New York.