Go East, Young Man
Help Slate with its new series on the China gold rush.
There's gold in them hills! And real estate! And junk bonds! And cell phones! And Internet cafes! And a billion Chinese shoppers!
Every age has its gold rush. The Dutch went mad for tulip bulbs in the 17th century. A hundred years later, canals were all the rage. In the 1840s, gold. In the 1860s, railroads. In the early 20th century, phones, radio, cars, and planes. In the 1980s, Wall Street. In the 1990s, the Internet. And, now, in the 2000s … China.
Pick up a newspaper and you'll see a story about the latest American company plotting its assault on "the greatest untapped market on earth." Search Amazon, and your screen will fill with books offering 101 tips for making a killing in the PRC. Say "China" to executives and investors, and they'll casually mention their last trip to Beijing. The boom is on, and everyone wants in.
Of course, even as we all feel a sudden desire to enroll in Mandarin classes, we should remember that the current China frenzy has only progressed to the second of five phases that define most gold rushes. To wit:
1. Spark: A few early birds strike it rich—and get themselves on the cover of Fortune.
2. Boom: The rest of us drool with envy and rush to cash in. The torrent of inflowing capital upsets the supply/demand equilibrium and drives prices to the moon, making the early birds even richer. This is where China is now.
3. Bust: The level of interest (capital) exceeds the level of opportunity (places to put it). Returns plummet, prices collapse, and herds of recent arrivals and Kool-Aid drinkers lose their shirts.
4. Mature growth: Savvy, patient contrarians sift through the wreckage, buying assets from the disillusioned for pennies on the dollar. This, in turn, becomes the most profitable, if least glamorous, phase. It's the one that the Internet boom has just entered.
5. Decay: See Polaroid, Xerox, and the British Empire.
Developing countries tend to experience multiple gold rushes, as the pendulum of socio-politico-economic reform swings forward, swings back (e.g., Russia), and then swings forward again. Today's China boom is only the latest in the country's history, and it probably won't be the last.
But in China's case, the long-term optimism seems particularly well-founded. Given the country's rate of progress, it is hard to imagine China not becoming the leading economic superpower over the next 50 to 100 years. The intermediate steps, however, will likely be incredibly complex and volatile, especially for Westerners. China's combination of cultures, languages, military power, income disparity, one-party rule, legal and regulatory systems, infrastructure, and, simply, vastness, will confound many.
No matter what happens, the boom will produce great stories. Slate has asked me to tell some of them. Specifically, I have been asked to focus on the stampede of American executives, companies, journalists, consultants, and investors currently elbowing each other out of the way to snag first-class seats to Beijing.
Before I begin, a confession: Thanks to a previous life as a Wall Street Internet analyst, I know a bit about business and a bit about gold rushes. Unfortunately, I don't know much about China:
- Language. To say I don't speak a word of Chinese would be an overstatement, but only just. I can say "hello" in one Chinese language (I think), but I don't know which one. I am also familiar with a refrain sung on the PBS Kids show Sagwa, the Chinese Siamese Cat, which, to my ears, sounds like "Hop on Yo." I am told it means "You're my best friend."
Henry Blodget is CEO of Silicon Alley Media, which publishes a network of business news and analysis sites including Silicon Alley Insider, Clusterstock, and The Business Sheet.
Illustration by Robert Neubecker.


